Capacity Planning with AI

Capacity planning answers the question every PM faces: "Can we take on this work with the team we have?" AI helps you calculate capacity more accurately, account for the hidden factors that reduce productive time, and make data-driven commitments instead of optimistic guesses.

What You'll Learn

• How to calculate realistic team capacity with AI
• Accounting for meetings, context switching, and unplanned work
• Forecasting capacity across sprints and quarters
• Making "yes/no/later" decisions about new work requests

The Capacity Reality Check

Most teams operate at far less capacity than they think. A developer with 40 hours per week doesn't have 40 hours of coding time. Between meetings, code reviews, Slack, email, context switching, and administrative work, the actual productive time is typically 25-30 hours.

Realistic Capacity Calculator Prompt

Help me calculate realistic capacity for my team.

Team members:
1. [Name] -- [role], [hours per week]
2. [Name] -- [role], [hours per week]
...

Recurring time commitments per person:
- Standups: [X] minutes/day
- Sprint ceremonies: [X] hours per sprint
- Code reviews: [estimated hours/week]
- 1:1 meetings: [hours/week]
- Other meetings: [hours/week]
- On-call rotation: [describe schedule]
- PTO scheduled: [upcoming dates]

Overhead factors to account for:
- Context switching (working on multiple projects)
- Slack/email/administrative time
- Unplanned work (bugs, production issues)
- Mentoring and knowledge sharing

Calculate:
1. Gross capacity (total hours)
2. Meeting and ceremony time
3. Overhead reduction (typically 15-25%)
4. Net productive capacity per person
5. Total team capacity in productive hours
6. Equivalent story points (at [X] hours per point)

Show the math for each person.

Example Calculation

For a 5-person team with a 2-week sprint, AI might reveal:

Person	Gross Hours	Meetings	Overhead (20%)	Net Hours
Dev A	80	12	14	54
Dev B	80	12	14	54
Dev C	80	15	13	52
QA	80	10	14	56
Design	80	18	12	50
Total	400	67	67	266

That's 266 productive hours out of 400 gross hours -- only 66.5% efficiency. This is normal, but most teams plan as if they have 400 hours.

Sprint Capacity Planning

Sprint Planning Prompt

Next sprint details:
- Duration: [1 or 2 weeks]
- Start date: [date]
- End date: [date]

Team availability:
[For each team member: working days available,
any PTO, holidays, or training]

Historical velocity:
- Last 3 sprints: [X], [Y], [Z] story points
- Average: [calculated average]
- Known factors affecting next sprint: [anything
different from normal -- new team member,
technology change, etc.]

Calculate:
1. Available capacity in story points
2. Recommended sprint commitment (conservative
   vs. stretch)
3. Buffer to reserve for unplanned work
   (suggest percentage)
4. Warning if commitment exceeds sustainable pace

Quarterly Capacity Forecast

Quarterly Forecast Prompt

I need to forecast my team's capacity for next quarter.

Team: [list members with roles]
Known absences:
- [PTO, holidays, training planned]
Company events:
- [all-hands, team offsides, conferences]
Hiring plans:
- [expected new hires with start dates]
Attrition risk:
- [anyone potentially leaving]

Quarter dates: [start to end]
Sprint length: [duration]
Number of sprints in quarter: [calculated]

Current velocity: [average story points per sprint]

Calculate:
1. Total sprints in the quarter
2. Capacity per sprint (accounting for absences)
3. Total quarterly capacity in story points
4. Month-by-month breakdown
5. Confidence range (optimistic, likely, pessimistic)
6. Capacity at risk (what could reduce capacity
   further)

Handling New Work Requests

When stakeholders ask "Can the team take on this new project?" AI helps you respond with data.

New Work Assessment Prompt

New work request: [describe the request]
Estimated effort: [story points or hours]
Desired timeline: [when they want it done]
Priority: [compared to existing work]

Current team commitments:
[List all current projects and their resource
requirements]

Current utilization: [team utilization percentage]
Remaining capacity: [available points or hours]

Assess this request:
1. Can we take this on without affecting current
   commitments? (Yes/No/Partially)
2. If yes: recommended timeline and team assignment
3. If no: what would need to be deprioritized?
4. If partially: what scope could we deliver within
   available capacity?
5. Alternative: could we deliver this with
   [contract/temp] help?

Present three options for the stakeholder:
Option A: Take it on (impact on existing work)
Option B: Phase it (deliver in stages)
Option C: Defer it (when capacity opens up)

Capacity vs. Demand Visualization

AI can create text-based views of your capacity situation:

Here is my team's capacity and demand for the next
3 months:

Month 1: Capacity [X] points, Demand [Y] points
Month 2: Capacity [X] points, Demand [Y] points
Month 3: Capacity [X] points, Demand [Y] points

Create a text visualization showing:
- Capacity vs. demand per month
- Over/under capacity indicator
- Cumulative shortfall or surplus
- Recommendations for balancing

Key Takeaways

• Real capacity is 60-70% of gross hours after meetings, overhead, and unplanned work
• Always calculate capacity with overhead factors -- planning at 100% utilization guarantees missed commitments
• Use historical velocity as the primary input for sprint capacity planning
• Respond to new work requests with data and options, not just "yes" or "no"
• Quarterly forecasts should include confidence ranges and risk factors
• Reserve 10-20% of capacity for unplanned work -- it always shows up