Phan tich Tai chinh de Ra quyet dinh
Tong quan Module
Module cuoi cung nay tong hop tat ca kien thuc da hoc de ap dung vao cac quyet dinh thuc te trong quan ly khach san. Tu pricing strategy den investment decisions, ban se hoc cach su dung financial analysis de dua ra quyet dinh sang suot.
Muc tieu hoc tap
- Ap dung financial analysis vao pricing decisions
- Danh gia CapEx va renovation projects
- Phan tich market positioning
- Make vs Buy decisions
- Tich hop tat ca tools da hoc
1. Pricing Decisions
Pricing la mot trong nhung quyet dinh quan trong nhat, anh huong truc tiep den revenue va profitability. Financial analysis giup toi uu hoa pricing strategy.
1.1. Cost-Plus Pricing
Phuong phap don gian: ADR = Cost per Room + Desired Profit Margin
Vi du:
| Khoan muc | So lieu |
|---|---|
| Variable Cost per Room | 300,000 |
| Fixed Cost per Room (allocated) | 500,000 |
| Total Cost per Room | 800,000 |
| Desired Profit Margin (40%) | 320,000 |
| MINIMUM ADR NEEDED | 1,120,000 |
Y nghia: ADR toi thieu can dat 1.12M de co profit margin 40%. Neu market ADR thap hon, can giam costs hoac chap nhan margin thap hon.
1.2. Revenue Management Decisions
Su dung Contribution Margin de quyet dinh co nen accept group booking voi gia thap hay khong.
Tinh huong:
Group muon book 50 phong voi rate 1.5M (thap hon ADR hien tai 2M). Co nen accept?
| Analysis | So lieu |
|---|---|
| Group Rate | 1,500,000 |
| Variable Cost per Room | (300,000) |
| Contribution Margin per Room | 1,200,000 |
| Total Contribution (50 rooms) | 60,000,000 |
Quyet dinh: NEN ACCEPT neu nhung 50 phong nay se empty neu khong. Contribution margin duong (1.2M/phong) giup cover fixed costs. Tuy nhien, NEN TU CHOI neu co the ban voi gia cao hon.
2. CapEx & Renovation Decisions
Khi danh gia CapEx projects, can phan tich ROI (Return on Investment) va Payback Period.
2.1. ROI Analysis
Cong thuc ROI:
ROI % = (Annual Incremental Profit / Total Investment Cost) x 100
Vi du: Renovation Project
| Khoan muc | So lieu (M) |
|---|---|
| Total Investment Cost | 3,000 |
| Expected ADR increase | 500,000 |
| Annual rooms sold | 25,000 |
| Additional Revenue/Year | 12,500 |
| GOP Margin (40%) | 40% |
| INCREMENTAL PROFIT/YEAR | 5,000 |
Tinh toan:
- ROI = 5,000 / 3,000 x 100 = 167%
- Payback Period = 3,000 / 5,000 = 0.6 nam (7 thang)
Quyet dinh: DAU TU NGAY! ROI 167% va payback < 1 nam la XUAT SAC. Project nay se tao value lon.
3. Scenario Analysis
Scenario analysis giup danh gia decisions trong dieu kien khong chac chan bang cach xem xet nhieu kich ban khac nhau.
3.1. Best/Base/Worst Case Analysis
| Metric | Best | Base | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy % | 85% | 75% | 65% |
| ADR (M) | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Annual GOP (B) | 18.5 | 14.8 | 11.6 |
Insights: Ngay ca worst case van profitable (11.6B GOP). Base case (14.8B) la realistic. Best case (18.5B) la upside potential. Decision co the proceed voi confidence.
4. Tich hop Tat ca Tools
Trong thuc te, ban se su dung TAT CA cac cong cu da hoc mot cach tich hop. Hay xem vi du comprehensive decision-making:
4.1. Case Study: Strategic Decision
Tinh huong:
Khach san 200 phong dang xem xet 3 options cho nam toi. Su dung financial analysis de quyet dinh:
| Factor | Option A | Option B | Option C |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | Status Quo | Renovate | Expand |
| Investment (B) | 0 | 15 | 50 |
| Y1 GOP (B) | 20 | 28 | 30 |
| ROI % | - | 53% | 20% |
| Payback (years) | - | 1.9 | 5.0 |
Quyet dinh: OPTION B (RENOVATE) la tot nhat. ROI 53% va payback < 2 nam la excellent. Option C co GOP cao nhat nhung ROI thap va payback qua dai (5 nam) voi risk cao.
5. Key Takeaways
Diem quan trong can nho:
- Pricing decisions: Su dung cost analysis va contribution margin
- CapEx evaluation: Calculate ROI va payback period
- Scenario analysis: Best/Base/Worst case de assess risk
- Integrated approach: Combine ALL tools de co best decision
- Financial analysis la tool de ra quyet dinh tot hon, NOT de replace judgment
Chuyen sang Epilogue: Your Journey Forward