Lap Ngan sach va Du bao
Tong quan Module
Budgeting va Forecasting la hai cong cu quan ly tai chinh quan trong nhat trong nganh khach san. Module nay se giup ban hieu cach lap budget chuyen nghiep va forecast chinh xac.
Muc tieu hoc tap
- Hieu quy trinh lap Annual Budget
- Ap dung cac phuong phap forecasting
- Thuc hien Variance Analysis
- Su dung Rolling Forecast hieu qua
1. Annual Budget
Annual Budget la ke hoach tai chinh chi tiet cho nam tai chinh toi. Budget thuong duoc chuan bi tu thang 9-11 cho nam tiep theo.
1.1. Quy trinh lap Budget
Buoc 1: Xac dinh Assumptions
- Market conditions & economic outlook
- Competitor activity & pricing
- Property changes (renovations, new services)
- Cost inflation & wage increases
Buoc 2: Du bao Doanh thu
Top-Down Approach:
- Xac dinh target Occupancy % va ADR
- Tinh Revenue = Occ x ADR x Available Rooms
Bottom-Up Approach:
- Phan tich tung segment rieng biet
- Tong hop thanh total revenue
Buoc 3: Lap Chi phi Budget
- Variable costs: % of revenue
- Fixed costs: contracts & historical data
- Labor: headcount x wages + benefits
2. Forecasting
Forecast cap nhat du bao dua tren thuc te kinh doanh. Khac voi budget (1 lan/nam), forecast duoc update thuong xuyen.
2.1. Pace Report Method
So sanh booking pace hien tai voi cung ky nam truoc:
| Metric | OTB | LY OTB | VAR | LY ACT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rooms | 2,400 | 2,200 | +9.1% | 2,680 |
Phan tich: OTB cao hon LY 9%, nhung LY cuoi cung dat 2,680. Forecast can +280 phong tu walk-ins.
3. Variance Analysis
Variance Analysis phan tich chenh lech Actual vs Budget de hieu WHY performance khac ke hoach.
| Line Item | Actual | Budget | Var | Var % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rooms Revenue | 4,200 | 4,000 | 200 | 5.0% |
| GOP | 1,680 | 1,600 | 80 | 5.0% |
Ket luan: Revenue +5% favorable, GOP +5% favorable. Performance tot hon budget!
4. Key Takeaways
Diem quan trong can nho:
- Budget la ke hoach tai chinh hang nam, lap 2-3 thang truoc
- Forecast cap nhat du bao thuong xuyen dua tren thuc te
- Variance Analysis giup hieu WHY performance khac budget
- Pace Report so sanh booking pace de forecast chinh xac
- Top-Down vs Bottom-Up - hai phuong phap lap revenue budget
Chuyen sang Module 7: Cash Flow Management